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One the most critical barriers to the advancement of Personal Air Vehicles in today's market environment is that the technological capabilities can never seem to outweigh the risks associated with financing such an endeavor. To address such a need, a system dynamics approach with the capability to model the uncertainties in the supply chain is presented in this paper. The overall modeling framework is first presented and the modeling process of the various relevant elements, such as demand prediction and manufacturer analysis, is then described. The aim of this research is ultimately to assess the viability of a next-generation aircraft program beyond the static confines of a net present value approach, through the inclusion of dynamic events and uncertainties that can occur throughout the life-cycle of the aircraft.

Several approaches to robust design have been proposed in the past. Only few acknowledged the paradigm shift from performance based design to design for cost. The incorporation of economics in the design process, however, makes a probabilistic approach to design necessary, due to the inherent ambiguity of assumptions and requirements as well as the operating environment of future aircraft. The approach previously proposed by the authors, linking Response Surface Methodology with Monte Carlo Simulations, has revealed itself to be cumbersome and at times impractical for multi-constraint, multi-objective problems. In addition, prediction accuracy problems were observed for certain scenarios that could not easily be resolved. Hence, this paper proposes an alternate approach to probabilistic design, which is based on a Fast Probability Integration technique.

Heterogeneous physical systems can often be considered as highly complex, consisting of a large number of subsystems and components, along with the associated interactions and hierarchies amongst them. The simulation of a large-scale, complex system can be computationally expensive and the dynamic interactions may be highly nonlinear. One approach to address these challenges is to increase the computing power or resort to a distributed computing environment. An alternative to improve the simulation computational performance and efficiency is to reduce CPU required time through the application of surrogate models. Surrogate modeling techniques for dynamic simulation models can be developed based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN).This study will present a method to improve the overall speed of a multi-physics time-domain simulation of a complex naval system using a surrogate modeling technique.

This paper attempts to assess the benefits of a unique distributed propulsion concept, known as the Multi-Gas Generator Fan (MGGF) system, over conventional turbofan engines on civilian vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) applications. The MGGF-based system has shown the potential to address the fundamental technical challenge in designing a VTOL aircraft: the significant mismatch between the power requirements at lift-off/hover and cruise. Vehicle-level performance and sizing studies were implemented using the Grumman Design 698 tilt-nacelle V/STOL aircraft as a notional personal air vehicle (PAV), subjected to hypothetical single engine failure (SEF) emergency landing requirements and PAV mission requirements.

The Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory at the Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, has recently created the “Collaborative Design Environment” (CoDE), a next-generation design facility supporting efficient, rapid-turnaround conceptual design. The CoDE combines cost-effective, off-the-shelf information technology with advanced design methodologies and tools in a customized, user-centered physical layout that harnesses the power of creative design teams. The CoDE will enable researchers to develop, test and apply new approaches to conceptual design, and to improve modeling and simulation fidelity. It will also support sponsored design projects as well as student teams participating in national design competitions.